GLP-1 Evidence

Not medical advice. A record of published research and our assessments of it. The limits

Semaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with obesity and prevalent heart failure: a prespecified analysis of the SELECT trial

Design
Randomized trial · 17604 participants · Hard outcome
Match to healthy normal-weight adults aged 55–75
Different populationSELECT subgroup analysis; same obese secondary-prevention population.
Could weight loss explain it?
Possibly[Auto] Participants had obesity and/or type 2 diabetes and the abstract does not separate direct drug effects from weight loss or glycaemic improvement.
Study tier
Study tier 2Prespecified subgroup analysis of a large RCT.
Assessment
Version 2 · curated · Sep 13, 2026

Study facts come from the paper. Population match, weight-loss explanation and study tier are our judgments, made against the reference group of healthy normal-weight adults aged 55–75.

Within SELECT, semaglutide's cardiovascular benefit was similar in the quarter of participants who had heart failure at baseline, across preserved and reduced ejection fraction. Same obese, high-risk population as the main trial.

01Findings

What the study reported

Drugs
Semaglutide
Dose
2.4 mg weekly
Route
subcutaneous
Comparator
placebo
Primary outcome
Prespecified SELECT analysis by heart-failure history: MACE, HF composite, CV death, all-cause death
Effect
Benefit consistent in patients with and without HF history (HRs in full text; MACE HR ~0.72 with HF)
95% confidence interval
Not extracted
Follow-up
mean 39.8 months
Adverse events
Not extracted
Limitations
Auto-classified from abstract only; effect estimates, adverse events and limitations not extracted. Requires manual review.

Who was studied

Mean age
61.6
Bmi mean
33.4
Bmi min
27
Obesity status
BMI >= 27 required
Diabetes status
excluded
Cvd status
established CVD; 24.3% with heart failure
Baseline condition
heart failure with preserved ejection fraction
Sample size
604

Study quality details

Study design
Randomized controlled trial
Sample size
604
Randomization
yes
Blinding
double-blind
Comparator
placebo
Follow up duration
45 years
Outcome type
hard
Replication
not assessed (auto)
Consistency with other evidence
not assessed (auto)
Population applicability
INDIRECT
Statistical precision
CI reported: 95% CI 0·60-0·87 for MACE
Risk of bias
prespecified subgroup analysis; not powered per subgroup
Funding conflicts
yes
Peer review status
yes
02Funding

Funding and conflicts

Funding
Novo Nordisk
Industry funded
Yes
Manufacturer
Novo Nordisk
Sponsor role
Sponsor analysed.
Author conflicts
Authors report Novo Nordisk relationships; sponsor co-authors.
Independent replication
unknown
Notes
Authors declare relationships with the drug's manufacturer: Novo Nordisk

Funding is shown on every study and never used to score it.

03Claims

Claims this study bears on

04Source

The source, as retrieved

Abstract

[BACKGROUND] Semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, reduces the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in people with overweight or obesity, but the effects of this drug on outcomes in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure are unknown. We report a prespecified analysis of the effect of once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide 2·4 mg on ischaemic and heart failure cardiovascular outcomes. We aimed to investigate if semaglutide was beneficial in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease with a history of heart failure compared with placebo; if there was a difference in outcome in patients designated as having heart failure with preserved ejection fraction compared with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; and if the efficacy and safety of semaglutide in patients with heart failure was related to baseline characteristics or subtype of heart failure. [METHODS] The SELECT trial was a randomised, double-blind, multicentre, placebo-controlled, event-driven phase 3 trial in 41 countries. Adults aged 45 years and older, with a BMI of 27 kg/m2 or greater and established cardiovascular disease were eligible for the study. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) with a block size of four using an interactive web response system in a double-blind manner to escalating doses of once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide over 16 weeks to a target dose of 2·4 mg, or placebo. In a prespecified analysis, we examined the effect of semaglutide compared with placebo in patients with and without a history of heart failure at enrolment, subclassified as heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, or unclassified heart failure. Endpoints comprised MACE (a composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and cardiovascular death); a composite heart failure outcome (cardiovascular death or hospitalisation or urgent hospital visit for heart failure); cardiovascular death; and all-cause death. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03574597. [FINDINGS] Between Oct 31, 2018, and March 31, 2021, 17 604 patients with a mean age of 61·6 years (SD 8·9) and a mean BMI of 33·4 kg/m2 (5·0) were randomly assigned to receive semaglutide (8803 [50·0%] patients) or placebo (8801 [50·0%] patients). 4286 (24·3%) of 17 604 patients had a history of investigator-defined heart failure at enrolment: 2273 (53·0%) of 4286 patients had heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, 1347 (31·4%) had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, and 666 (15·5%) had unclassified heart failure. Baseline characteristics were similar between patients with and without heart failure. Patients with heart failure had a higher incidence of clinical events. Semaglutide improved all outcome measures in patients with heart failure at random assignment compared with those without heart failure (hazard ratio [HR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·60-0·87 for MACE; 0·79, 0·64-0·98 for the heart failure composite endpoint; 0·76, 0·59-0·97 for cardiovascular death; and 0·81, 0·66-1·00 for all-cause death; all pinteraction>0·19). Treatment with semaglutide resulted in improved outcomes in both the heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HR 0·65, 95% CI 0·49-0·87 for MACE; 0·79, 0·58-1·08 for the composite heart failure endpoint) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction groups (0·69, 0·51-0·91 for MACE; 0·75, 0·52-1·07 for the composite heart failure endpoint), although patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction had higher absolute event rates than those with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. For MACE and the heart failure composite, there were no significant differences in benefits across baseline age, sex, BMI, New York Heart Association status, and diuretic use. Serious adverse events were less frequent with semaglutide versus placebo, regardless of heart failure subtype. [INTERPRETATION] In patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular diease and overweight or obesity, treatment with semaglutide 2·4 mg reduced MACE and composite heart failure endpoints compared with placebo in those with and without clinical heart failure, regardless of heart failure subtype. Our findings could facilitate prescribing and result in improved clinical outcomes for this patient group. [FUNDING] Novo Nordisk.

Where this record came from

SourceRetrievedIdentifier
pubmedSep 13, 202639181597
first ingestion